Threat Axis

The President’s first 100 days are over – and still no word on what is going to happen with one of the most watched Pentagon acquisition programs in years.

The Air Force tanker program (to replace the aging KC-135′s).

SecDef Robert Gates has said he opposes a ‘dual buy’ (some from Airbus and some from Boeing) option.

There isn’t a even a concrete ‘dual buy’ proposal on the table, only suggestions from some Senate subcommittee chairmen as a way to break the impasse. And even then – the actual committee chairmen have not yet decided other than to wait to see what the Pentagon proposes.

Read the rest of this entry »

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As the weather warms – it is time to get out of the house and take in the sights. For aviation photographers – that means it is Air Show season.

A couple of hints if you have never gone to a show before;

• Check to see how big a backpack you are allowed to bring in (small bags – good, large bags – usually prohibited)
• Check to see if you can bring folding chairs – if YES – then DO IT. You are going out onto an airport. So there aren’t benches to sit on. If you want to sit on something – you have to bring it with you.
• Water. If you don’t bring your own – bring $$$ to pay the vendors for it.

Below is a link to a slideshow of my pictures from the Luke Air Force Base (Glendale, AZ) “Thunder in the Desert” airshow held last month.

To see if there is an airshow close to you – take a look at this web page from the Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine.

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swine flu,flu,pandemic,stress,terror,health,sickness,resistance

Of course we are all now familiar with the latest media-consumption craze: the global swine flu pandemic. 

Concerning this, I cannot help but notice that, since this has started capturing the media’s attention, I myself have been feeling sick.

Every day, and every night, we are bombarded with media frenzy over this news.  We’re told to wait.  We’re told to worry.  The media pumps this up into a huge disaster, using words like “pandemic” and “no resistance” and “deaths”.

Don’t get me wrong:  sickness and death are tragic.  But as the fine print in every media report points out:  The regular flu kills tens of thousands each year.  And this current version of swine flu is turning out to be less fatal, per infected person, than the regular flu is.

Hmm.

I realize the media has a job to do, but I can’t help wondering if the media itself isn’t contributing to this problem.  By constantly parading this story in front of everyone, they’re making everyone worry.  Raising everyone’s stress levels. And, as a result, lowering everyone’s resistance.  The “dirty laundry” is probably more virulent than the flu itself.

Other things are more important: Dealing with the outbreak itself, fixing the economy, fixing credit, putting ethics back into credit card companies, and fixing taxes.

But, maybe, someday, someone ought to take thought to “fixing” mainstream media.

“Kick ‘em when they’re up!  Kick ‘em when they’re down!” certainly does seem to fit!  And I’m certainly being kicked, and I’m certainly being brought down by it. 

Enough, please. I’m going to die someday, and there’s nothing I can do about this flu outbreak that I wasn’t already doing anyway.  Please, big media, let me get back to my life – regardless of how much of it I have left!

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A very disturbing trend is emerging pertaining to the mental health and well-being of our military personnel. It is the rate of military and soldier suicides. 

In 2008, there were 138 confirmed suicides – an average of 11 per month. In the first two months of 2009, there were 42 – more than double the average rate.  Although the data space for this trend is fortunately small, the thinking seems to be that one of the chief driving factors in these suicides is shortened leaves coupled with multiple redeployments to Iraq.  This factor has been present in the bulk of the recent suicides investigated thus far.

This is a clear danger, on numerous levels. First, and most obviously, it shows that we are stretching our military too thinly.  We forget the all-too-important truth that our military personnel are in fact people, and subject to the same limitations as anyone, especially in the area of traumatic stress. We cannot expect these people to function properly if they are pushed beyond reasonable limits.  Of course, war could be agreed to itself be beyond reasonable limits, but there is a significant different between serving a tour in Iraq followed by a tour at home, and serving a tour in Iraq, having intertour leave cut short, and being immediately redeployed to Iraq. Repeatedly. If Congress finds it necessary to continue our presence there, it should find the funding to hire additional personnel to cover the force requirements in a healthy, safe, sane way – one which does not jeopardize the safety of our personnel.  Congress’ failure to do so is itself a significant threat.

Second, it highlights the problems we still face in Iraq. The situation there is obviously dangerous, and unhealthy. It is also significant, since we have forces deployed there in a state of war. This only increases the burden placed on soldiers already stretched to the limits.  It is imperative that we protect the situation in Iraq, yes. But is is more imperative that we protect our own people, especially our military.

Third, and perhaps the most frightening, such a situation is not one that is conducive to military participation numbers.  Requiring such extreme duty of our personnel is bound to increase attrition rates dramatically. Not only will re-up/re-enlistment rates drop, but new recruitment rates are bound to drop as well. 20 years ago, the Army ran 3-minute television sports with graphics and music entitled "Be all that you can be." In contrast, today’s "Army Strong" spots are short, subdued, and quiet. Indeed, there is very little to be said.

The increase in suicide rates is troubling and disturbing on its own.  But there is much more to it.  The rate increase is an indicator of a systemic problem in the maintenance of a military force. Failure to treat and maintain our force properly could ultimately result in its self-destruction.  These things must be prevented at all costs, and must be addressed at the highest levels with top priority. 

If we fail, we fall.

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Lockheed-Martin Joint Strike Fighter X-35B STOVL prototype

Originally uploaded by rob-the-org

Earlier this week – it came to light that design specifications (computer files) for the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)/F-35 Lightning II stored on a Pentagon contractor computer system – had been accessed and downloaded by hackers.

One story says that the contractor’s computers were compromised as early as 2007 – and the hackers continued to access these systems.

The thing about this story – is that it isn’t new. The original allegations that the program’s computers had been compromised was first run almost a year ago in May 2008. The contractor disputed the initial IG’s report with enough vigor that the IG withdrew the report last October.

It seems that Lockheed-Martin and BAE are downplaying the incident by saying that no “classified” data was compromised But if the attackers encrypted the data streams that were being removed – how can anyone be sure what exactly was or was not accessed.

Read the rest of this entry »

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cyberspace,government,monitoring,internet

The news of the day was at once innocuous, and stunning:  The BBC reported that Internet Service Providers in the European Union were now under government mandate to log their users’ email messages and internet telephone calls.  Although the mandate does not require ISPs to store the contents of the email, or a recording of the call, it certainly doesn’t forbid it either… and whether such additional records exist ot not, the law on its face it does allow for the monitoring of communications between individuals, and the establishment of "connections" and/or relationships therefrom.

The ways in which this data could be used are many, and the ways in which it could be misused are there as well.  And there are inconsistencies in the announcement that beg for clarification.  For example, the UK Home Office said that "effective safeguards are in place and … the data can only be accessed when it is necessary and proportionate to do so", which implies that the data would only be used to solve crimes as an investigative tool.

But in almost the same breath, they justify this law by saying that "Communications data … plays a vital part in … prevention of terrorist attacks, as well as contributing to public safety more generally."  Prevention?  Contributing to safety generally?  This is a broad mandate that tells the true story: The EU government intends to engage in data-based profiling.  Who you call, or who calls you – even accidentally – now determines who you are.  You might become flagged as a terrorist without ever knowing it, until it’s too late.

For those who might roll their eyes at such a prediction, one need only look back at the lessons of history. The advances of technology are increasing rapidly – even exponentially.  The assumptions about the fabric of our world, which we have grown up with, which we have indoctrinated ourselves with, are turning out to be, if not false, certainly flimsy, and falling away rapidly. Consider the concept of identity theft.  Try explaining identity theft to a "you" of 20 years ago.  Even 10 years ago, this was relatively unheard-of.  Now, an entire industry exists to "serve" the "victims" of identity theft.  And now, a new portion of your identity – your political and ideological affiliations – are up for grabs… or at least interpretation.

What the EU government is doing with communications data is clearly akin to what the US government did in the 1970s with credit reporting.  Called the "Fair Credit Reporting Act", this set of laws codified how credit data could be gathered and used. When words like "Fair" and "Consumer Protection" are used, we automatically assume safety and "goodness" – it becomes a blind spot – the existence of which is proven by the sheer vastness of the identity theft and credit management industry.

Now, what will we have? Clearly there will be a log showing everyone I email, and everyone who emails me.  There will be a log showing everyone I call, even over the Internet, and everyone who calls me.  And since it’s all data, and is person-to-person data (as opposed to person-to-company data reported to credit bureaus), there will be the automatic existence of person-to-person-to-person data.  For example, if terrorist Jim calls the local pub to order a pizza, and I order a pizza from that pub, I will be linked to terrorist Jim. 

And how will I even know this has happened?  Will there be a "terrorist bureau" that I can order my "terrorist report" from?  Will I get a free report each year, from each of the top three "terror reporting agencies?"  What about my "terror score"?  Anything above a 340 and you can be imprisoned for 7 days without cause, you know.

This codification of data gathering, and its stated purposes, are, in this author’s opinion, one of the biggest threats to freedom we have ever seen.  The BBC report quotes a citizen as saying this only got passed by "stretching the law". 

It’s easy to see why.

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Titan – 9 MT RV

Originally uploaded by rob-the-org

[posted for Global Watcher]

From NTI’s Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. agency that oversees the nation’s nuclear weapons complex is shifting design work on a key warhead component — the tritium gas system — from one government laboratory to another, a move that is generating some controversy (see GSN, Nov. 10, 2008).

Robert Smolen — until last month a top National Nuclear Security Administration official — announced the decision in a Jan. 5 internal memo. The agency, he said, would soon consolidate responsibility for designing tritium “gas transfer systems” from the two organizations currently performing the work — the Los Alamos and Sandia national laboratories — down to a single site, Sandia’s facility in Livermore, Calif.

Congress in 2000 established the National Nuclear Security Administration as a semiautonomous arm of the Energy Department. The agency oversees the national laboratories as part of its mandate to maintain the stockpile.

The component at the center of debate, called the “gas transfer system,” moves tritium from container bottles into the core of the nuclear warhead as the weapon explodes. It “enables tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, to boost the yield of a nuclear weapon,” according to an NNSA statement issued a day after Smolen’s internal memo.

The news release heralded the decision without identifying New Mexico-based Los Alamos as the facility expected to lose the work.

The NNSA announcement went largely unnoticed and a number of issue experts contacted for this article said they could not comment before learning more about the move. One U.S. nuclear weapons official opined that the arcane bureaucratic machinations amount to little more than “inside baseball.”

However, new revelations about the initiative raise broad questions about how competing interests might affect the future safety and reliability of the nation’s nuclear weapons.

Read the rest of the story on NTI’s webpage.

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Ok – I have kept everyone in suspense for long enough. Here is a side view of the same plane – and you can start answering some of the questions I posed.

This was a flight demonstrator for the Shaped Sonic Boom program. The thought was that a modified underside of the aircraft’s fuselage could potentially reduce the sonic boom that an aircraft made when going supersonic (Mach 1+) speeds.

[The newest jet engine's - i.e. the F119 on the F-22 Raptor - no longer has to go to afterburner to get to supersonic speeds. One of the reasons that the Concorde wasn't able to make money (and got retired) was because it was constantly on afterburner (and burned a huge amount of jet fuel). Beyond the fuel costs - the other reason that the Concorde wasn't successful - was because it was restricted to overwater flights. Because on an overwater flight - there was no homeowner's association or EPA to complain about the noise pollution].

Read the rest of this entry »

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USNS Able (similiar to Impeccable) on trials

Earlier this week – a story came out that several Chinese vessels had been harassing a US Naval Support ship – USNS Impeccable while it was in international waters.

Now let’s be perfectly clear – USNS Impeccable is not a replenishment ship.  It is SURTASS ship.  SURTASS ships were designed to supplement fixed SOSUS sites to provide sound surveillance of large stretches of the ocean.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Poseidon – C3

Originally uploaded by rob-the-org

Every organization has had it happen. For whatever reason – the one person who “knows” how things works leaves the organization and there were certain things that only that person knew how to do.

That’s fine when you are dealing with a store or consulting business – but how about the assembly of a nuclear warhead?

That’s what has happened w/ the warhead for the US Trident submarine launched ballistic missile. The Sunday Herald recently reported that the UK Trident modernization plan is threatened with costly delays because no one in the US weapons plants knows how to make a hazardous material code named ‘Fogbank.’

I remember seeing articles over the last couple of years talk about how all of the bomb designers at Los Alamos were nearing retirement and there was concern over who would be left to build the bombs when they left. I guess we know the answer to that question now….

But you have to wonder – if this lack of knowledge was an unspoken reason why the previous Administration had been pushing a new warhead design (the Reliable Replacement Warhead) so strongly.

[Update, March 11] And talking about developing nuclear warheads – take a look at this ScientificAmerican article about ‘Advances in Monitoring Nuclear Weapons Testing‘ (the article’s authors claim that any test of at least 1 kt would be detectable, and in some parts of the world – even below 1 kt).

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BlackBerry Upgrade!

Originally uploaded by bluemarla

If you haven’t noticed – we have tweaked ThreatAxis so that if you try to read if via your mobile device (Crackberry, iPhone, Android) you will get an optimized version of the site for your device.

If you have any issues with this – please let us know.

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Marine One

Originally uploaded by Pradagirl

It was disclosed this morning that blueprints and specifications of the Presidential Helicopter ‘Marine One’ have been compromised via a File Sharing program on a contractor’s computer.

And that the same data was found on a computer system in Tehran Iran.

The article doesn’t mention if this is the current Marine One, or the new Marine One (which might never go into service due to continuing cost overruns).

Someone will probably lose their job over this (unless they are a VP).

But this is a prime example of why you keep work on one computer and play on another.

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Raptor_Airshow-2

Originally uploaded by Lockheed Martin

The President has a decision to make by this weekend. Whether or not to start shutting down the production of the F-22 Raptor, or to buy some additional planes.

It is a decisive issue – not just for the military and the government, but also the economy;

• It is the most expensive fighter plane ($191 million apiece) ever
• It has no use in the conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan
• Service Chiefs want more
• DOD needs to cut new acquisition programs to fund on-going combat operations
• Congress supports buying more
• Allies (Australia and Japan) want to buy it
• Suppliers or factories for the plane are in 44 of 50 states
• Estimates are 40,000 people would be affected by shutdown of program

Read the entire story – on USAToday.com.

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HMS Vanguard

Originally uploaded by forargyll

Earlier this month – and first reported this morning (since both sub’s are now back at base) – the British and French SSBN’s on deterrent patrol collided with each other.

Unlike the larger US SSBN fleet – the UK and France each have a small SSBN fleet, such that usually only ONE boat is at sea at a time.

The SSBN fleet are the only strategic nuclear force that either country still maintains. The French decommissioned their land based missiles (S-3′s) in 1996, and the British bomber force lost their nuclear role in 1970 (when the first British Polaris SSBN was commissioned).

Besides the general uproar when something happens to a nuclear asset – what else does this event tell us?

- The British and French SSBN’s have overlapping area’s of operation

Beyond that – everything else is a guess – and will probably never be known publically;

- Were both submarines trying to avoid detection by a 3rd submarine or other ship?
- Was either submarine trying to ‘hide’ behind the other?
- Was either submarine able to detect the other?
- Did they forget that they drive on different sides of the road?

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This was the original reason that I was going to go down to Pima on the photo trip.  I hadn’t been to the museum since the new ‘Spirit of Freedom’ (Hanger 1 South) had opened up.  And it was the new home to the museum’s SR-71 Blackbird.

The pictures in this slideshow documents the progression of the Blackbird’s display at Pima.  From being tucked under a temporary sun shade/car port, to being out in the middle of the Arizona sun, to finally being inside and showcased in the new hanger.

This is the last set of pictures from the January photo-safari.  If you would like to explore more of my pictures from different trips to Pima – please click HERE.  If you are interested in learning more about the Pima Air & Space museum – click HERE.

If you would like to see all of my posts about Pima – click HERE.

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This was the reason that most of us had come on the trip. A chance to photograph the Convair B-36 Peacemaker that the Museum staff had been working on reassembling for over three years now.

[This slideshow/picture set is of ALL of my B-36 pictures from Pima.  Not only my trip in January 2009, but from trips in 2006 and 2007.  So you can see the visible progress.  For a more current and up close status of the restoration of the Peacemaker, take a look at the project page on the Pima website]

Read the rest of this entry »

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F-22 Raptor

Originally uploaded by Rob Shenk

In an attempt to position additional purchases of the F-22 Raptor as either an ‘economic recovery project‘ or for sales to performance details of the plane have been released by Lockheed-Martin.

• Radar Cross section – -40 dBsm., the equivalent radar reflection of a steel “marble.”
• Supercruise – Mach 1.78 rather than Mach 1.5
• Acceleration – 51 seconds rather than 54 seconds (did not disclose what speed/altitude this performance metric is for)
• Altitude – non-afterburning/full military – above 50,000 feet (even though reports have the Raptor’s ceiling at 65,000 feet)
• Radar range – 5% greater than expected (ranges on AESA radar‘s are classified, but is estimated to be above 100 miles)

  In support of potential foreign sales – the Raptor will make its Paris Air Show debut later this year. The Raptor was not sent to Paris in 2007, due to the way that French officials handled a previous visit by the F-117 Nighthawk (routing the F-117 over several French military establishments – so they could conduct electronic intelligence gathering).

  Cross your fingers – maybe we will still have enough Air Superiority fighters in 10 years to control the skies over a battlefield.
  
  

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russia,iran,soviet union

After years of living with the Cold War, many of us were surprised and chagrined to see Russia’s more relaxed, apparently friendly stance towards the world.  For a while, Russia almost dropped off the news map, as Russia became rather self-absorbed with their charismatic new leader, Vladimir Putin.  Clearly, however, that was not a time of narcissicsm; rather, it was a time of internal growth, stabilization, and unification. And it seems, now, that we may be starting to see the fruits of that growth.

Most of the world knows about the gas row in Ukraine last month, resulting in the cut off of Russian natural gas to the EU.   Not to mention the whole conflict with Georgia that was in the news last year. These incidents represent a much more aggressive stance than that which we’ve experienced from our global neighbor in past years.

Indeed, the indications seem to be that Russia is trying to return to what it perceives as its remembered time of greatness as a world leader.

Consider:

• Last week, when the EU hinted about concerns over the murders of two Russians who were speaking out against the government, Russia responded not by trying to deny, feign ignorance, or cover up, but rather by accusing the EU of its own human rights abuses.
• And today, Nikolai Bordyuzha, former KGB leader who is now the general secretary of the ODKB (or, in western alphabet, CSTO – think: Russian version of NATO), announced that Russia and its allies will be creating a joint-air defense system of its own, running the entire breadth of Russia, and encompassing Belarus, and most likely the other member countries of the ODKB.

For a long time, Russia has directed anger at NATO, condeming it for both its actions and for being what Russia calls “a puppet of the U.S.”  Now it seems Russia wants to play the same game.  Given the growing desire of Russia to return to the world stage, combined with the continuning problems in the middle east, and the ongoing struggles in Europe, the ODKB (which indicated some time ago that they would welcome an application from Iran to join its ranks) may well be a much larger player in the coming months and years.

Not to mention Russia itself.

UPDATE – Threat Watcher here – and let’s not forget the sudden development that Kyrgyzstan is closing Manas Airbase to the US.  Don’t know where Kyrgyzstan is?  Or why this is important?  Manas is the primary US supply point for getting men and material (food, bullets, etc) in and out of Afghanistan.

According to the New York Times;

The United States has leased the Central Asian base since after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, but American officials said they believed that Russia was using an offer of more than $2 billion in loans and grants to Kyrgyzstan to force the United States out of the region, colloquially referred to as “the Stans.”

Now that the Russian economy is back on its feet (thanks to sales of gas & petroleum to the West), the Russians can reassert control over the former Soviet Republics via ‘soft’ power.  No longer does the Kremlin need to deploy a Guards Shock Army to maintain power – all they have to do is to keep the money flowing.

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